Course Overview:

This course introduces practical forecasting techniques to support better business decisions using real-world data. Participants will learn how to prepare time-series data, build and validate baseline and driver-based forecasts, and evaluate accuracy using professional metrics. The course emphasises translating forecasts into decision-ready insights through scenarios, dashboards, and clear stakeholder communication using Excel and Power BI.

Learning Outcomes:

• Prepare real-world time series datasets for forecasting by defining the correct data grain, handling missing values and outliers, and building repeatable data-cleaning workflows in Excel and Power Query.

• Build and interpret baseline time-series forecasts using methods such as na??ve, seasonal na??ve, moving averages, exponential smoothing, and decomposition.

• Validate and compare forecasting models using professional practices including backtesting, accuracy metrics (MAE, RMSE, MAPE, WAPE), and bias diagnostics.

• Develop causal (driver-based) forecasting models using regression and translate results into clear business insights.

• Present forecasts in decision-ready formats through Power BI dashboards, scenario analysis, and structured recommendation memos.

Please note: We provide tailored versions of our courses to cater to the specific needs of organisations. The pricing for customised courses may differ from that of our open-enrollment courses. For more details on pricing and instructor information, kindly reach out to us via email at ces@lums.edu.pk

Course Outline

Safi Ullah Khan

Safi Ullah Khan is a digital transformation and analytics professional with ~5 years of experience building data-driven solutions across leading global organisations, including British American Tobacco, Unilever, Levi Strauss & Co., and Retailo. He currently works as a Demand Forecasting Manager at British American Tobacco, leading forecasting and performance analytics initiatives across markets. He has developed executive dashboards in Power BI and implemented structured forecasting processes to improve decision-making. His teaching style is hands-on and practical, focused on turning messy data into reliable forecasts, clear insights, and stakeholder-ready dashboards using Excel and Power BI.

Application Process:

Participants must register online through the CES website by clicking on their desired course and filling out a one-page form. Before starting the registration process, please ensure that you have the following:

- A passport-sized photograph for the CES smartcard. It should be against a white background.

- Correct CNIC details.

Incorrect information provided during the registration process will lead towards cancellation of your enrolment at any stage, and participants will not be entitled to claim a refund.

Once you have completed your online registration, you may proceed to the payment section. You have two options:

1. Pay online using your bank debit/credit cards through the LUMS online payment system https://pay.lums.edu.pk

2. Download the fee voucher and deposit cash in any branch of the designated banks specified on the fee voucher.

Once the payment has been made, you will receive a confirmation email within 24 to 48 working hours, and your payment status will be updated to "ENROLLED" in the online application portal.

Installment:

KalPay Taleem offers monthly installments for all CES on-campus courses and workshop fees. For more details, contact via WhatsApp at 0328 3044414 (working hours - 9:30 AM to 6:00 PM), or visit taleem.portal.kalpayfinancials.com/sign-up to apply!

Note: CES may cancel or postpone a course due to insufficient enrolment or unforeseen circumstances. In this case, the university will refund registration/processing fee (if any) but will not be responsible for any other related charges/expenses including cancellation/change charges by airline and travel agencies.

Please go through Policies & Code of Conduct